A vision for strategic, low carbon and competitive aluminium


Today, the European Union is well advanced in reaching its objective of cutting its domestic GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 from 1990 levels. This is in line with the EU objective to reduce its emissions by 80-95 percent by 2050 compared to 1990. With its recent publication on the EU mid-century strategy the European Commission opened a thorough debate to ensure that the EU’s climate policy is in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, while aligning action in key areas such as industrial policy, finance, or research.

Vision 2050 is European Aluminium’s contribution to the debate, setting out different scenarios how the sector can contribute to the EU mid-century strategy and outlines the conditions necessary for the sector to realise its full potential for decarbonisation.


Take-aways of the report

  • The global demand for primary aluminium is expected to increase by 50% by 2050, reaching 107.8 million tonnes. Chinese demand will peak at almost 50 million tonnes per year around 2035. European demand for primary aluminium will be about 9 million tonnes per year up to 2050;
  • The main growth drivers will be increasing demand in strategic applications where aluminium’s unique properties make it the material of choice, including mobility, building and construction and packaging;
  • The European demand in 2050 will be met by almost equal shares of primary and recycled aluminium production. Production of primary aluminium (EU28 + EFTA) is expected to meet 25% of the demand by 2050, providing adequate supportive policies for the industry and integrated value chains that are in place;
  • Total CO2 emissions from primary production (direct and indirect) would fall by around 60% and 70% by 2050 compared with 2014 figures;
  • Increasing the production of recycled aluminium, rather than importing more primary aluminium from third countries, would reduce CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2050 by 880 and 1500 million tonnes of CO2e;
  • Enhancing access to aluminium scrap both in quantity and quality is necessary to achieve this potential. Our report points out at specific measures to achieve this scenario.

Download Executive Summary - Vision 2050 Report


Download the Vision 2050 Report